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Investing

Market view: Was that it? Is the bull run of 2021 over?

This is my latest newsletters which I’d shared with subscribers on the 30th May. Typically aiming to post these newsletters a week after I share them via mail. I hope to share some interesting posts, investments and advice, links, besides trends for the market. All feedback is appreciated and feel free to drop in a mail on makingcryptoeasy101@gmail.com in case you’ve got some. I promise to read and respond to every mail. Also, let me know if you’d want to check on specific coins or topics.


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So was that it?

Without sugar coating it, I think we’ve moved from a bullish phase to maybe a period of some pain. This is not to say we won’t have another bull run this year. I just think that move we’ve seen over the last few months has kind of come to an end. The market now enters a period of a sideways or downwards move. How long this will last, I’m not sure. But I’m listing down a few pointers below on ‘why I am saying, what I am saying’. 

Before that, here is my view from my previous newsletter on the 31st March 2021:
“Personally, I’m being a little cautious given this extreme bullishness. This, by no ways, means I’m exiting the markets. Definitely not. I am currently decently invested, based of course on my personal risk ability. I have no plans to increase my current investment. I am taking profits as I go along and may switch between existing coins”.

Coming back, these are a couple of things I’ve been keeping a watch on. Obviously, things can be a lot easier to see in hindsight, but keeping a tab on these on the next up moves can only make trading and investing a lot better.

  • Bitcoin moving below its 100 day moving average was a BIG red flag for me
    I am surprised by how many ignore this technical indicator. I’ve mentioned it multiple times on my twitter feed and more recently did a post on this. Recommend you give that a read. We broke that level around the 24th of April. Bitcoin breaking that level from the top has happened only a handful of times previously. This is why I give this important. Again, there’s no definitive science with technical analysis which says that “because so n so happened previously, it has to happen again”. But, clearly the way this has played out on this occasion is eerily similar to what happened the last times. Go check out that post I linked above. I’d love to know what you think. 
    The current 100 DMA on Bitcoin is around $40,400. I’m going to be keeping a watch to see how it plays out around those levels on an up move.
     
  • The froth in the market was very very evident. DOGE, SHIB, SAVE, UPDOG, ASS, CUMROCKET – these are the coins that began stealing the spotlight. I’m not making a judgement here on the fundamentals of these coins, although many coins popped up in the “low priced” category of coins that have absolutely crappy fundamentals. By “low priced” I mean coins that have a circulating supply in the hundreds of billions, quadrillions and the likes. This is a post I’d done on this category of coins. Investors in these coins often ignore the market cap and presume that because a coin is at a price of say $0.0000000000240, it is cheap. “If that moves to 1$, my portfolio’s going to be amazing”. Nothing could be more wrong here. For a coin like says HOGE Finance to reach $1 would mean it has a market cap of $413 billion!!! That’s not happening. Bitcoin is currently at a market cap of $667 billion.
    Coming back, these coins were seeing insane moves and that typically has been a clear signal for an intermediate top.

What am I doing with my holdings?

Just like most others, I’ve been caught by surprise with the ferocity of this recent fall. I didn’t expect such a vicious correction. While I’d booked some profits, clearly I could have booked a lot more. Currently, I’m not participating in this market. I’m not selling any of my holdings, and by no ways buying the dip. I’m comfortable holding what I have. To name a few – Zilliqa, eRSDL, Quant, 1inch, Polkadot, Parsiq. Quant and Zilliqa have some big events lined up in the current quarter. So looking forward to see how that plays out. If I get $QNT around $25 or $ZIL around 5 cents, I’d add into my position. It’s the fundamentals of each of these projects which makes me comfortable holding them even if I see pain. I’ve even recently begun a Systematic Investment Plan or Dollar Cost Averaging into MATIC. I’ve done a post on this method of investing and think everyone should give it a thought. It helps you avoid the FUD on the way down and FOMO on the way up. If you’re confused about this, feel free to drop me a mail. I’ll be happy to explain it in the details.

As always,

  • Do your own research
  • Keep learning
  • Do not follow anyone blindly. Remember it is you alone who will enjoy a profit or bear loss of a trade
  • None of this is financial advice. It is aimed at sharing an opinion and knowledge
  • Invest wisely. Trade smart. Book profits as you go
  • Feel free to share the word of this blog if you’ve found it useful.

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